North Jersey is uncomfortably dry. A coming tropical storm could change that.
Tropical Storm Isaias, which was over the Bahamas as a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday afternoon and taking aim at southeastern Florida, is expected to track north along the Atlantic Coast and impact New Jersey on Tuesday.
The storm is forecast to drop 4 to 6 inches of rain across New Jersey. As bad as that sounds, it could actually be welcome news for much of North Jersey, where large swathes of Morris, Sussex, Warren, Passaic and Bergen counties are currently listed as “abnormally dry” on the United States Drought Monitor.
“If this storm comes in and even gives us three or four inches of rain, that’s probably bought us the rest of the summer,” David Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist, told NJ Advance Media on Saturday.
Robinson, whose office is based at Rutgers University, stressed that much could change about the storm’s forecasted impacts to New Jersey in the coming days.
A large swath of North Jersey was listed as "abnormally dry" by the U.S. Drought Monitor on July 28, 2020.Image courtesy of the U.S. Drought Monitor
Tropical Storm Fay and a spate of thunderstorms inundated New Jersey in short bursts during July. But that rain was concentrated on Central Jersey and South Jersey, Robinson said, and long stretches of hot, dry weather at the end of July has left North Jersey drier than normal. He noted that last month closed as the hottest July on record for New Jersey.
The Garden State also experienced below-average rainfall in May and June.
Heavy rain from Isaias could, of course, bring problems to New Jersey. Robinson said the storm is currently expected to bring minor to moderate freshwater flooding — flash floods from rain bursts and soaked rivers — to the state. People in low-lying, flood prone areas should prepare for possible flooding, Robinson warned.
“Once you get over four, five inches of rain, it doesn’t matter how dry you’ve been. It doesn’t what season you’re in,” Robinson said. “You’ve got a flood threat.”
The Raritan River and its tributaries face a higher flood risk than the Delaware River and the Passaic River, thanks to recent rain patterns, Robinson said.
One quirk of Isaias could drastically alter the amount of rain that falls on New Jersey. On Saturday afternoon, some forecasting services noted that the hurricane’s heaviest rains were falling on the east side of the storm.
Typically, tropical systems drop their heaviest amounts of rain on their western sides. Robinson said it would be very unusual for a storm like Isaias to have heavier impacts on the eastern side.
“I can’t recall a storm that’s done that in all my years here,” Robinson said.
It’s too early in the forecast to speculate on how coastal flooding and storm surge may impact New Jersey as Isaias passes the state, Robinson added.
The New Jersey Office of Emergency Management is currently monitoring the forecast, Laura Connolly, a spokeswoman for the agency, told NJ Advance Media on Saturday afternoon.
Connolly said OEM currently has no plans to open emergency shelters, but is prepared to do so if the forecast worsens. She added that NJ-TF1 (the state’s urban search and rescue team) is deployable, along with the New Jersey All Hazards Incident Management Team. OEM also has portable generators ready to go if needed.
ALSO: The best portable generators to help you survive power outages in a big storm
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Michael Sol Warren may be reached at mwarren@njadvancemedia.com.
The Link LonkAugust 02, 2020 at 04:44AM
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-could-bring-some-relief-to-abnormally-dry-areas-of-nj.html
Tropical Storm Isaias could bring some relief to ‘abnormally dry’ areas of N.J. - NJ.com
https://news.google.com/search?q=dry&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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