FARGO — Forecasters have confirmed what many might suspect well into a winter that has been stingy with snowfall: The risk of significant spring flooding along the Red River so far is low.
“The threat for significant, impactful, snowmelt flooding is very low across all sub-basins and for the main-stem Red River,” Greg Gust, a National Weather Service meteorologist, said in a flood outlook issued Thursday, Jan. 28.
Current conditions and the climate outlook suggest "minor flooding is the predominant risk," he said. Dry conditions have persisted throughout the fall and winter so far.
Soil moisture, river and stream flows and current snowpack throughout almost all of the Red River basin are close to below normal.
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No dramatic weather changes are expected in the climate outlook for February, March and April, which calls for near normal temperatures and precipitation that's somewhat wetter and snowier than average.
“The spring snowmelt flood risk is currently quite low, running below long-term historical averages across all of the Red River and Devils Lake Basin” within the U.S., Gust said.
The subdued early spring flood outlook follows a top-10 flood year in 2020 and the wettest year on record in 2019. The meager snowpack is the result of abnormally dry or drought conditions, Gust said.
The early flood outlook includes a range of possibilities, with varying probabilities:
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The Red River at Fargo has a 95% chance of reaching 17.1 feet, a 50% chance of 21.9 feet and a 5% chance of cresting at 34.6 feet. Minor flooding in Fargo starts at 18 feet, moderate stage is 25 feet and major flooding begins at 30 feet. The 2009 flood crested at a record 40.84 feet. As of Thursday afternoon, the river level was 14.6 feet.
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The Red River at Grand Forks has a 95% chance of reaching 18.5 feet, a 50% chance of reaching 23.1 feet and a 5% chance of cresting at 41 feet.
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The Red River at Wahpeton has a 95% chance of reaching 8.8 feet, a 50% chance of 11.1 feet and a 5% chance of topping at 14.3 feet.
The weather service is expected to issue an updated flood outlook on Feb. 11.
January 29, 2021 at 03:00AM
https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/weather/6861530-Low-risk-for-major-spring-flood-in-abnormally-dry-Red-River-Valley
Low risk for major spring flood in abnormally dry Red River Valley - Grand Forks Herald
https://news.google.com/search?q=dry&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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