The past few days have been quiet and sunny with temperatures near normal as the ground dries out from previous rains. The dry pattern is about to come to a close and more wet weather is on the way.
Tonight, a cold front will push in from the west and provide the focal point for rain and a few storms over the next couple of days. As has been the case this summer the front will stall out and our region will stay in the rainy pattern for a bit. This time around there is a little different feel to the rain as it will be a cooler pattern, but wet nonetheless. Wednesday will be rainy pretty much most of the day, not a steady rain but cloudy with periods of rain. Isolated storms are not out of the question, but nothing severe is in the offing. The wet ground may not be able to absorb the water all that well even after a few days of drying so if we get a pocket or two of heavy rain, I expect to see some minor flooding. This will be more likely in the rugged terrain locations in the NRV and Highlands.
Thursday poses a different forecasting problem as there will be a pocket of cool air migrating around an area of high pressure in the Great Lakes to New England region. This will bring in the “wedge” of cool air that should suppress the rain to the south a bit. The rain will be focused in our Southside locations, but not exclusively, so keep the umbrella handy. Then as the day wears on the high shifts east and off the coast and we get a better chance for rain on Friday.
Friday does seem to be the wettest day of the week with the wedge deteriorating and the water available for condensation we should see a rainy Friday. The rain will be associated with a few thunderstorms but once again, nothing severe as of yet in the forecasting models. Minor flooding is expected on Friday. Saturday will be a day of transition as we mover from wet to dry so I anticipate a few showers on Saturday as well. Sunday may be dry once again but with all the water left around from the previous weeks rain, we may still see a few showers.
Also, the tropics are getting active again with two storms of note in the Atlantic Basin. Watch Tracking the Tropics tonight on WFXRtv.com to get the scoop.
Of note, on the night of August 19-20 1969 the region experienced the most devastating and deadly flooding in the history of Virginia as Hurricane Camille moved over the region as a lingering tropical depression. The combination of available moisture in the region, a cold front to the north and the mountainous terrain… over 27” of rain fell in a small area of Nelson county in just over 6 hours. Over 150 perished and the region was destroyed. I will be talking about this event in a digital original right here on our website tomorrow. You should check it out.
Stay safe and healthy
John Carroll
Chief Meteorologist
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The Link LonkAugust 19, 2020 at 02:26AM
https://www.wfxrtv.com/weather/weather-blog/pinpoint-weather-sunny-and-dry-pattern-yields-to-rainy-and-cooler-conditions/
Pinpoint Weather: Sunny and dry pattern yields to rainy and cooler conditions - WFXRtv.com
https://news.google.com/search?q=dry&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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