In recent weeks, meteorological models gave the Bay Area a glimmer of hope that some much-needed precipitation was on its way, bringing a bit of relief to a parched region.
But those hopes — like much of California itself — have dried up.
The Bay Area and most of the Golden State are bracing for several more rain-free weeks, adding to what has already been an abnormally dry rainy season, meteorologists said.
“That’s been the pattern this winter so far,” said Anna Schneider, a National Weather Service meteorologist.
“We see something promising in the forecast — then when we get there, it fizzles out.”
Meteorologists say one large storm can make up a significant chunk of the region’s rainfall deficiency — but with only a few weeks left, time is running out. The historically wettest part of the rainy season is a dismal time for a dry spell, meteorologists said.
Overnight radar update - cold front continues to move through the region. A few hundredths to two tenths fell over the North Bay, but the front is starting to fall apart. #cawx pic.twitter.com/p90DDy4PmE
— NWS Bay Area (@NWSBayArea) January 8, 2021
Since October, the region’s rainfall has been paltry — fluctuating between 65% and 75% below normal levels, Schneider said.
A system that brought rain to Washington state and Oregon also reached some parts of the North Bay on Friday — but the tail end of the system fell apart over the Bay Area after dropping at most two-tenths of an inch, the weather service reported.
“We had quite a bit of dry air over us,” said weather service meteorologist Cindy Palmer. “For that reason, the rain system really weakened and fell apart.”
The dry weather will be paired with temperatures ranging from the mid-40s to the high 50s throughout the Bay Area this weekend, slightly warmer than normal.
The lack of wet weather is stressing the state’s water supply.
Surveys conducted by the state’s Department of Water Resources late last month found that the average snow-water equivalent, a measure of snowpack, was 5 inches, when it should be about twice that amount. The last time the snowpack was that low was 2017 — when California was emerging from a years-long drought.
The results reflected California’s dry start to the rainy season and “provide an important reminder that our state’s variable weather conditions are made more extreme by climate change,” Department of Water Resources Director Karla Nemeth said.
The snowpack in the Sierra and southern Cascades provides as much as a third of the water used by California cities and farms. That area is not expecting any precipitation — in the form of rain or snow — for the next five to seven days, “or possibly longer than that,” weather service meteorologist Scott Rowe said.
The state’s wet season is expected to last through March, but the first few weeks of January are crucial because that time is historically the wettest part of the wet season, Rowe said.
One big storm could significantly make up for the deficit, Rowe said — a full recovery, though, is “unlikely, but not probability impossible.”
“While we are in a dry pattern, there is still plenty of wet season left,” Rowe said. “In the next few weeks, we do lose the opportunity to dig ourselves out of that hole.”
Michael Williams is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: michael.williams@sfchronicle.com
The Link LonkJanuary 09, 2021 at 05:15AM
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Bay-Area-forecast-Dry-conditions-to-persist-for-15856722.php
Bay Area forecast: Dry conditions to persist for weeks as window to make up for arid winter starts closing - San Francisco Chronicle
https://news.google.com/search?q=dry&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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