Strong La Niñas are not typically a farmer’s best friend both in the United States and in Brazil – and Argentina.
The general world circulation pattern associated with a strong La Niña event creates subsidence, or sinking air, over North and South America for a warm and dry pattern, while rising air in the Southwest Pacific and Southeast Asia areas creates very wet conditions.
This cycle is expected to be the dominant concern through the entire 2021 growing season both in the United States and across South America.
We have already seen dry to drought-like conditions in just 8% of the United States in 2019 (in a weak El Niño-like pattern) grow to cover 65% of the country in 2020 with similar conditions materializing across Brazil and Argentina during the spring (September to November) 2020 planting season. The dry spring trends were very impressive in both the corn and soybean growing regions of Brazil and Argentina, with major soybean growing areas like Paraña in southern Brazil experiencing the driest season in 17 years and northeast Argentina the driest in 13 years and the second driest in more than 35 years.
Brazil’s full-season corn crop had a bit better planting conditions, especially in the major growing area of Minas Gerais, which accounts for 22% of Brazil’s total full-season corn production, but 19% of full-season corn comes from the harder hit, much drier Paraña. Very dry soil conditions persisted for weeks after planting, so clearly there is much higher risk to yields when harvesting starts in the March-June time frame.
Relief for soybean areas
As the growing season progresses in 2021, conditions are more likely to improve a bit for harder hit soybean growing areas of Argentina (west of Buenos Aires) and southern Brazil (Paraña, Rio Grande do Sul) with more rainfall, even if the precipitation trends are still a bit below average.
The dry conditions are likely to expand through the Southern Hemisphere summer (December to March) in central Brazil’s corn- and soybean-growing regions to include Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso, and Goiás that represent nearly 60% of Brazil’s soybean production and 40% of full-season corn. This will become even more concerning for Brazil’s second, or safrinha, corn crop in which more than 65% is grown in areas expected to be very dry during the second planting in March to June. Get ready for the CME to sound like concerned meteorologists!
As harvest for Brazil’s first-season full crop starts in March, a lot of attention will be on how much weather reduced yields. The weather scenario is somewhat similar to the 2015-2016 season, when CONAB, Brazil’s equivalent of USDA, lowered expected yields by 20% from preseason expectations as the season progressed. Month after month the numbers came in lower and lower. In 2016 the weather and yield concerns across South America combined with a very dry start to the U.S. season to spur a commodity rally; that setup is likely to repeat as U.S. farmers plant in dry to very dry soils in 2021.
Weather Trends expects more than 60% of the United States to be in dry to drought-like phases by May, making it the driest planting season in eight years, similar to 2002, 2012, and 2013 – years that ultimately resulted in below-trend-line yields. What we see happening in Brazil is very likely a harbinger of things to come in the United States. Unlike Brazil, the United States will very likely have another hyperactive hurricane season in 2021 with more crop risks to the Southeast. Look out, Florida!
Learn More
Bill Kirk is CEO of Weather Trends. A FarmCast subscription for Weathertrends360 forecasts looking out up to 365 days can be found at wt360.com/ag for $369 a year.
The Link LonkJanuary 27, 2021 at 12:45AM
https://www.agriculture.com/dry-crop-season-in-south-america-to-continue
Dry crop season in South America to continue - Successful Farming
https://news.google.com/search?q=dry&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
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